Wed May 23 2012 03:16 AM
Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Beryl

Pre-Season Invest 94L

It is perhaps noteworthy that we are not yet even in June and are now following the fifth Invest of the year, and third just this month.

A persistent trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean has been bubbling up some convection for the past few days and is now being tracked as Invest 94L. 94L really seems to consist of two or three weak lower level circulations (noted by the red "X"s I have placed on the image above) associated with a broad, elongated trough in the region.

Upper level winds are currently less than favorable for any significant development, but may become less unfavorable over the next few days.

Whether or not 94L ever develops into a tropical cyclone, this feature is currently forecast to fester, and only slowly make its way across Cuba, and possibly ultimately across south Florida, as well. In any event, 94L is in a region of steering currents that will likely continue to toss several days of showers and storms to its northeast, whatever may come, and it appears that more of these rains have the potential to become frequent, and heavy.

Given that 94L is land-locked with forecast steering currents that only slowly move it along, it is one to watch, primarily because of its potential for producing excessive rainfalls and resultant flooding.

Extreme south Florida is already under a Flood Watch for the rains which have occurred so far. The total at Miami International Airport was already 9.7" as of 10:00PM on the 22cd.

4:30AM EDT Edit: Added 0645 UTC IR Image
As can be seen in the image above, almost all of the deep convection associated with the surface trough is displaced well to its east tonight.

Added: Invest 94L upgraded to Subtropical Storm Beryl on 05/25/2012 at 11:00PM EDT
Added: Subtropical Storm Upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl on 05/27/2012 at 2:00PM EDT

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