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Its still there, but quite weak - around 25.4N 80.0W - its been drifting to the east for about the last 4 hours. The southwesterly shear did shove a lot of the convection to the northeast of the center. NHC's 40% was actually based on weakening tonight and then redeveloping on Friday - just have to see if it gets motivated by the Gulf Stream. Lots of dry air in the Gulf but it could get slowly modified. The southwesterly upper shear is expected to weaken by Saturday - just not sure yet if there will be enough left of 94L to regenerate by then. ED |