Subtropical Storm Beryl located near 30.7N 77.4W at 27/04Z continuing to move toward the southwest however motion likely to become more west southwesterly in a few hours as blocking high pressure to the north begins to slide eastward and weaken. Sporadic convection continues to fire closer to the center as slow transition to a tropical system occurs overnight into Sunday afternoon.

Beryl has displayed hints of that slow transition throughout Saturday afternoon and evening. Cloud pattern transitions within and near the center of low pressure suggest subtle changes in the upper environment over Beryl. As Beryl crosses the Gulf Stream on Sunday a boost in convection near the center seems likely, however, with cooler shelf water at the coast, intensity will probably not change much since the period of time that the cyclone will have in a fully tropical state will be quite limited before landfall occurs late Sunday evening.

Earlier Saturday afternoon/evening the weak subsidence zone on the west side of the cyclone displayed a greater component of southwesterly motion with little movement toward the west. Although minor, this southwesterly surge could put the eventual landfall location a little further south toward the St. Augustine area. Beryl is expected to weaken at landfall as it spends a day inland - just how far inland will depend on how quickly the high to the north weakens and shifts eastward. A trough approaching from the central U.S. should move Beryl back into the Atlantic and off to the northeast away from land.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are likely to be confined to a relatively small area near the center - probably within 60 miles. Rip currents are already a serious problem with this system and this hazard will continue into early next week along the coast from central Florida to the Carolinas.

From NHC: "THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED."

ED