Greetings, everyone. I hope you are having a safe and healthy 2012.

My best guess for 2012 is for 14 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors.

It is worth noting that we have had two named storms, already.

Despite these roughly "average" totals (at least since 1995 has been concerned), I expect a greater chance for landfalls, including higher than average odds of US landfalls.

If I am right, and we have fewer names, but more landfalls than usual, that means that a larger percentage of 2012 named systems than usual in the Atlantic basin will impact land - which would just go to show how average (and of course even below average totals) do not necessarily result in average to below average impacts.

My rationale for 14, 6 and 3 may easily be busted - and perhaps by a lot, should:

1) an El Nino begins prior to September (expect my guess could be much too high in that case) , OR

2) we actually slide back into a La Nina phase by September (expect my guess could be much too low in that case).