Ernesto remains a very disorganized tropical cyclone located about 110 miles east northeast of Barbados at 03/01Z moving to the west at 18 kts. AF RECON reported winds of 45 knots earlier today but given the structure of the system the winds could have been more convective rather than increasing cyclonic intensity. However, with the storm approaching Barbados and the Windward Islands, an upgrade to Tropical Storm status seems like a reasonable precaution.

The system is moving into an expanding region of westerly wind shear aloft that should limit any significant development for the next three days as Ernesto crosses the southern Caribbean Sea. I'd expect that Ernesto will probably be located between Jamaica and northeastern Honduras in about 5 days moving generally to the west northwest as the Atlantic ridge stays strong and extends westward. Intensity probably a little lower than the 70 knots currently reflected because of the windshear. SST is around 28C in the central Caribbean Sea. If the ridge weakens at that time, a more northwesterly movement could slowly develop. Ernesto will pass through the northern Windward Islands early on Friday and the following NHC Watches/Warning are currently in effect:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA

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