Ernesto, which had been on the upswing this morning, has certainly been on the downswing this afternoon and evening. At 07/03Z I had estimated the center at 16.7N 83.2W within the ballpark of the NHC position report. Forward motion over the past 6 hours has been just about due west rather than west northwest.

While dry air has certainly played a role in the declining appearance of the storm, I think that an additional cause has been yet another increase in the low level easterly flow that decoupled the system - again - with the mid to upper level portion of the storm currently displaced well to the east. There is still time prior to landfall Tuesday evening (probably in northern Belize near Belize City) for Ernesto to become vertically stacked and restrengthen one more time.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

Weather at Belize City, Belize

ED