At about 4:30 PM EDT this afternoon, Aug 17, recon found strong evidence of a closing or already closed center with maximum sustained winds at the surface of at least 40 MPH (with the on board SFMR actually suggesting about 48 MPH). Tropical Storm force winds are so far only noted within a very small radius, and Seven is a small cyclone.

Seven is very close to the shore, presently about 20.5N 96W, and advisories on Tropical Storm Helene could be initiated within short order. Given Seven's forward speed and trajectory, it is now looking more possible that it skirts the shore, or moves just inland, and then may have about even odds of reemerging over the far western Gulf of Mexico by the end of this weekend.