There seems to be considerable organization necessary for the NHC to declare that a cyclone has formed. I agree that the area in the NW portion of the envelope is becoming the dominant focal point, but it is not there yet at least based on visible evidence this am. I am also interested in the situation near the remnant of Helene. A burst of convection is occurring over the waters east of Mexico. While there is still evidence of a circulation over land the dynamic of the trough diving quickly SE'wrd over Texas may induce the circulation more to the east back over water...this still bears watching IMO.

9:35 update there seems to be a circulation at about 14.2/36.2. Two large convective areas are generally south and NW of that pointmso further organization will have to occur, but it seems to be underway.
The area of convection near the Mexico coast in the SW GOM is growing. The eastern edge of the former Helene's circulation seems to be just on the coast and may be over water, but most of it is on shore...still interesting.
Off to a conf. for a few days