Regarding 2004, I noticed that also, however, from an ENSO SST point of view, it doesn't seem to be a very good analog. The NOAA ENSO forecast for the remainder of the year expects Neutral conditions with anomalies from -0.1 to -0.5. Here are the actual monthly ENSO 3.4 anomalies for 2012 and 2013 (so far) vs. the actual monthly anomalies for 2003 and 2004.

2012
-0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.3
2013
-0.6 -0.7 -0.4

2003
1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2004
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

ED