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At 08/12Z, Invest 91L was located at 13.1N 19.0W and the disturbance was moving west at 7 knots. Winds are still at 25kts and pressure is now 1008MB. Although NHC still suggest a high probability of additional development, this confidence is probably based on the GFS model output and its rapid spin-up of the system - but in reality this wave doesn't look too much different from the earlier shredded systems that have exited the West African coast. Westerly windshear still seems to be hampering the organization of the northern portion of the system. Examining the windshear forecasts, the best opportunity for development of this system would seem to be from Monday evening or Tuesday morning through early Thursday when the westerly windshear would have less of an influence on the system. ED (Title updated to reflect current system status.) |