At 03/03Z, Invest 97L was located close to the northwest tip of Cozumel Island and was moving to the northwest at 8 knots. Central Pressure is 1006MB and winds are at 35 knots. Structure has improved throughout the day/evening on Wednesday and a direct upgrade to TS Karen seems quite likely Thursday morning. SSTs are 30C.

Steering currents suggest that movement will become more northerly late Thursday and north northeasterly on Friday as an extention of the Atlantic ridge holds firm along the Florida east coast on Thursday. Additional development/intensification on Thursday will likely become more steady-state on Friday as system encounters increasing westerly windshear. The tropical cyclone could slow down quite a bit on Saturday - perhaps even stalling offshore the northern Gulf coast with movement becoming erratic.
ED