At 04/15Z, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 250 miles south of eastern Louisiana and movement at that time was to the north northwest at 8 knots and sustained winds had decreased to 45 knots. Latest satellite images hint at a slower and more northerly forward motion. The slowdown and stall mentioned in the previous post now has support from at least the GFS model which stalls the system south of eastern Louisiana from 12Z on Saturday until 12Z on Sunday.

As a trough to the west approaches and with northern Gulf coast shelf SSTs at 29C - and if the stall does occur - some intensification is possible late Saturday but more likely early Sunday as the cyclone begins to move off to the northeast or even east northeast. Windshear should decrease as the trough approaches - and the northeast movement would take the system away from any (minor) influence of upwelling.

Landfall location is still uncertain, but it looks more like Florida and less like Louisiana, which means landfall could occur as late as Monday morning, BUT a stalled system is prone to drifting so all areas in the watch and warning zones should carefully monitor Karen for changes in both intensity and forecast track.
ED

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