SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).
Cheers,
ED