Well Kevin, you were right about the Atlantic SSTs - still too cool between 20W and 50W - really did a number on that wave. The tropical low is still hanging on near 10N 21W at 11/12Z. Some limited convection has attempted to refire this morning, but this one (and those that follow for awhile) will have to travel quite a few days westward before encountering a more favorable SST environment. Another swirl still holding it together at 14N 39W. Regarding your landfall question, I think that the southeast, including ALL of the Gulf, are potential target areas through at least mid October this year. I don't think that the Gulf season will shut down as quickly as it normally does. I still believe that we will only have 5 or 6 more storms. Cool eastern Atlantic has not changed all that much in months. Some signals that the weak El Nino may be starting to rebuild - and if this happens, congrats to NOAA for making a tough call. If you shut down at least half of the basin, the emerging reality is that the remaining half, with less than classic conditions, can only support the development of just so many storms. Maybe only half a dozen left to form this season, but with the momentary decline in El Nino over the past month, I also think that the season has a better chance of running longer than I had originally expected. Could even experience the oddity of a very late season storm.
Cheers,
ED