I figure that it might last that long - Edouard is definately not 'Fast Eddie'. It has moved generally south less than one degree in about 24 hours. JB's comments on the UKMet are worth noting. The UKMet has had an excellent handle on this system over the past couple of days. Last night the UK was the only model to forecast a decrease in the small jet that was to the north of the storm - and that has happened. When the jet streak relaxed it allowed the dry air behind the trough to wrap into the system - and the storm did crank up a bit this morning, which aided the intrusion of dry air into the system. I think that the dry air was the culprit, not the shear. The system had been holding its own against the shear for quite awhile. Anyway, convection has started to the north of the center again and its not being torn off to the east so I think that the westerlies have relaxed. Precipitable Water values in central and south Florida are still high. Some of the convection in south Florida and the northern Bahamas might get pulled into the system eventually - looks like there is plenty of time for that to happen. The structure of the cyclone is excellent, and were it not for the dry air intrusion, the GFDL might have actually verified. The only real unknown at the moment is trying to figure out exactly what mechanism will move it anywhere in the next day or two. Since the system is stationary, I'll assume that the 'push' from the north has reached its limit - which makes the UK solution look pretty good - maybe a little further south and then off to the northeast. I still think that Edouard has a good chance for additional intensification - moist air from the south...and the east can still make it into this well formed - and rather stable - circulation. With dry air entrainment, the system enjoys the stability of a hybrid system. A drift to the southwest - as forecast by just about everyone - allows the system to enjoy the benefits of the Gulf Stream. On the other side of the equation, climatologically, southwest moving systems usually weaken. I'm still not convinced that Edouard will cross the state, but if it did it would survive the journey because of its hybrid nature. On a far more serious note, and in light of the convection building again, a weak slow moving storm could easily equate to flooding should it eventually make landfall, so no matter its strength, it still needs to be monitored closely.

And for HF: The way this season is going, it might be hard pressed to come up with 2 or 3 more storms

(but I still think that it will)

Added at 1020p: Upper ridge in the eastern Gulf seems to be building a little - may nudge the storm southeastward.
Cheers,
ED