i dont like the ukmet solution.. it doesnt look right. what i should be saying is that it does, just like the last few years, a potentially destructive system should end up being a fish spinner. but here's the thing. pretty solid model support has the ridge in the east surging back, building across to the north of the system. deep layer flow is pretty uniformly shown as east on most of the globals. why ukmet wants to leave some lower heights cut off from the westerlies and use that as an excuse to turn edouard into yet another northeast moving storm sort of baffles me. while the system is weak and the steering currents are weak i can see it loitering around east florida.. but late this week with the ridge back.. think florida gets hit, and then edouard is in the gulf.
very finicky system, but have a feeling this one will make a name for itself.
by the way ed, another SE atlantic system before the week is out. 80% on that.
by the way, like your opinion on why edouard weakened. very shear resistant little storm isnt it? looks like the worst of the subsidence is passed, too.
HF 0444z04september