|
|
|||||||
At 12/00z, recon centered TD9 at 26.2N 86.7W. Core temp was 23C, so I think that this system will be considered tropical. Shear is still a problem, but lopsided systems are more the rule in the Gulf rather than the exception. TD9 is just about stationary and will likely stay that way for another 12-18 hours - it may wander some, but not much, after which a general northeast motion seems likely. Will be interesting to see if this one builds its convection during the afternoon rather than early morning. I think that it will slowly develop into Hanna, but I'd guess that its about 24 hours away, i.e., late Thursday afternoon, before it attains tropical storm strength. Initial recon found a central pressure of 1001mb. The analogy to Harvey seems like a good one. Cheers, ED |