got an opposing viewpoint for ya, yeah. lili doesnt recurve. going to miss the digging behind isidore, that pulls out, big surface high blocks the escape to the north... and the semi-permanent ridge builds back. think this will be around florida early next week. that's if it survives. it has a history of having the low level center go racing ahead, weaken.. then a new center closes off at the southwest end of the main convective mass and repeats the process. looks to be happening again today.
kyle, if it doesnt get sheared to death, is more or less caught in the open atlantic.. may keep working its way westward under ridge pulses with time.. as i have yet to see a convincing model depiction of it escaping the ridging. when its track is done, think it may analog to ginny 1963, inga 1969... or some odd autumn central atlantic storm of the like that couldnt seem to catch a decent amplification and go with it.
share your thoughts on isidore. another contributor to the impression that hurricanes are a lot of hype that never come through any more.
ed, african wave train seems to have stopped. think we'll get any more storms this fall?
HF 1750z25september