hey ed, notice how the westpac got really quiet early this month? there are a couple going out there now, thinking that maybe if mjo is driving this crazy train.. that its about to pass on by. the downtime period over there was 20-25 days.. so when the basin shuts off, going to try a little experiment.. count it down and see if we get another burst when it comes back around. of course NAO switching phases and the effect of el niño will have on the late season (have noticed basin shear increasing in the last few days).. are probably going to wreck my idea.. but im betting that some time near the middle or end of october we'll get another hit of maybe a couple of storms at once.
HF 0414z27september