Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Oct 05 2002 10:43 PM
Re: Good forecast Ed...

First off, glad that you are okay! I was okay on the track forecast, but lousy on the intensity (guess I wasn't alone). Lili will probably be recorded as coming ashore as a minimal Cat II, but thats probably generous. The highest gust that I saw was 94mph at New Iberia, although you may have seen something locally that was higher. That would translate to an average Cat I at landfall with a small area of sustained winds around 85, perhaps 90mph, near the core. Still a worrysome event if you live along the coast. It occured to me that if Meteorology is about 150 years old as a science (see my earlier thread today) then I've been doing this for one-third of that timeframe - which points out that intensity forecasting still needs a lot of work.

Kyle is still hanging around and frustrating the NHC. An area near 28N 55W has a chance at becoming subtropical in a couple of days. An area in the southern Caribbean has minimal potential for slow development. An active wave is approaching the islands, but it is disorganized. I also believe that their is a chance for a very uncommon winter event - just a hunch. This has certainly turned into quite a season - more than I would have guessed a couple of months ago.

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