I think Ed Dunham & Kevin both make very educated analasys of whats been taking place in the Tropics over the past few weeks,now I'm no professional,I go 50% gut feeling & 50% scientific research & my feeling is we are going to have a pretty normal season or ever so slightly above normal,(12/6/3) are my #'s for this season,
whatever El Nino is out there will be a factor at times but not enough to significantly reduce activity,allthough water temps are slightly below normal in the East Atlantic it is only June 10,by Aug. & Sept. that will be back to normal,there are good looking waves coming off Africa allready, I did'nt see that last year until late July, we should get 3-4 Cape Verde storms by the time this season is over with,shear is always happening somewhere in the tropics at one time or the other more so at this time of the year when the seasons are in transition,remember June is a fairly quiet month with 64 storms in a period of 110 years give or take,also remember on average the 1st named storm usually does'nt occur until or after July 11,so I know the Hurricane guru's out there are getting impacient waiting for the 1st storm of the year & the atmosphere looks turbulent, but dont forget the season started last week, & in the Tropics things change on a day to day basis & like Kevin said "Remember Andrew" & Be Vigillant" even if #'s keep going down.