one big thing missing.. there isnt a cdo. a few convergence lines with the appearance of bands, yes, but no big convective burst at the low center to focus it. im not sure why... there's even an anticyclonic flow at the upper levels apparent in the cirrus... seems like the convection should be healthier. the ball is tottering on top of the hill, not rolling down yet.. that will start when the cdo flares up, gets the feedback mechanism going. i expect this to happen tonight.
kevin: night recon isnt a problem, it's pretty common. i'm not sure why first fixes are usually done in the afternoon, just the weather recon guys' routine i guess. but for threatening storms they go in every six hours, day or night.
wondering when jj will show up. he's from texas, and usually makes good calls on tropical systems.
pretty good idea of where this thing is going, just none on how strong it will get.
HanKFranK aiken SC 0020z08july