Primary upper level low is just north of the north coast of the Yucatan. This upper low is forecast to move to the west southwest over the next couple of days, but it is creating a band of increasing easterly shear over the central Gulf. Just a guess, but this is probably what is holding further development in check and preventing the development of a stable CDO. The system has expanded somewhat, but it has moved very little in the past 12 hours. Looking at the cirrus blow-offs, it appears that at high altitude there is some winds out of the west, i.e., directional shear as well. Although the upper low is forecast to move south of west into the southwest Gulf, the models suggest that the band of easterly shear does not decrease. I'm beginning to think that this system is going to have a tough time organizing. As HF noted, some of the models begin to develop a system off the SW FL coast in a couple of days. It will be interesting to see what the later model runs do with this since the shear in the eastern Gulf is a lot lighter and forecasted to stay that way.
Cheers,
ED