the cloud mass around 95L just sort of dissolved this evening. a few tstorms have redeveloped around the center at this late hour. pretty good look at the low level system since it is exposed, not too shabby, but not very tight. nothing a good cdo couldnt fix. no sustained pressure falls in the gulf.. system is unchanged. model runs still not deepening it much. anyhow i still think it will develop, just less time to get organized. weak tropical storm at landfall, probably just north of la pesca tuesday afternoon, best guess.
gfdl still making an eastern gulf system around mid week.. just dont know where the hell its coming from. not convinced yet.. have to see something concrete. gfdl is on the triggerhappy side until a real low forms.. then it does pretty well.
HanKFranK aiken SC 0521z08july