well 95L really has lost alot of its punch over night, becomming almost completely devoid of any deep convection. The low is obviuosly still intact, and the most recent satellite images suggest convection may be increasing to the southwest of the centre again. It wont be a TD by the 530am update, expect that to come in about 12 hours if it can get going again. I must admit, yesterday i thought this thing was inevitably going to develop, like 95% sure. Now i am less sure... perhaps 65%, but still expect it to impact the coast late Tuesay as a Tropical Cyclone... possibly only a TD, but still maybe a weak TS...

Rich B

StormWarn2000 IWN