Here's my take:

The W GoM low may close off tomorrow, but I doubt it makes TS strength. They may classify it as a TD, but I wouldn't bet on that now unless you gave me some pretty good odds.

As to the FL rainfall, it looks to me like there is a general broad circulation across the whole eastern and central Gulf. We had off and on showers throughout the day. I don't think any of 'em brought more than .1", but we probably got a 1/4" total in maybe 4 rain showers. There was more rain south and west of the city.

The Florida rain looks like a combination of general low pressure (as noted above) and a tropical wave. If you watch the IR or WV, you can kind of see a line moving W-WNW. Bob Breck noted that 'one of the cpu models' is closing off a low south of around Panama City which looks to be on Tues or Wed. The way things stand now is that there is a strong ridge over OK/AR which is probably going to move NE over time. This should continue the weak steering currents over lower lattitudes unless a big push comes in from the East. An upper level trof should be moving SE into NC Florida sometime near the weekend, so that might be a player eventualy if something does close off.

So here's a non-poll question for everyone: based on all the disturbed weather that hasn't actually formed so far this year, do you still feel strongly about your forecasted landfall areas and do you think the areas where the distubed weather has been portends anything for later on in the season? To me, everything is panning out as scheduled if June and July have been more-or-less dry runs. There has been abundant moisture around Florida, around the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico in general and off the SE coasts of SC and NC.

Steve