Various areas between Panama City and Morgan City will get flooding rains in the next 2 days. The last RUC and ETAs that I could find form a low in the NE Gulf in the 12-24 hour period. With all of the associated deep tropical moisture in place and daytime heating to kick-start action along the coast, there will be some big storms with heavy rains and probably some training. Last time we had a moisture setup kinda' similar to this was about 2 weeks ago when the ULL was taking over the NC Gulf. It eventually smacked Texas, but there were many places between Miami and New Iberia that had storm totals well over 10". Most everyone got at least 4-5" during that week.

The lowest future pressure I could find on any of the other models puts the NE Gulf low at 1013 mb. But for whatever reason it seems to me that rainfall totals are under-estimated when there is weak low pressure above 25N. But I can see any given site easily getting a 5-6" rainfall day out of this. My best bet for tomorrow is somewhere between Pensacola and Waveland. I guess we'll see.

Steve