System in western GOM is running out of time and convection this morning and probably will be a non event... at best, from a climatological viewpoint, the system had only a one in five chance of development... (only 20 named storms since 1886 during the first 10 days of July)

Perhaps the only game in town for the next couple of days will be in eastern GOM. Latest IR shows some perky convection in the eastern GOM and FL straits.... Vis loops do not indicate any rotation to the system ... Observations from the data buoys show relatively high pressure in the eastern GOM and FL straits as well... Additionally I could find no low pressures over the state of Florida either.... so nothing is happening fast or going to happen fast ... probability of something developing IMO less than 15% at the moment, but nevertheless, something to watch...

Only the nogaps model this morning shows a weak low forming (1008-1012 mb) in the northern GOM off the mouth of the MS river in 120 hours... I could find none of the other models jumping on this system... yet