Earlier today I gave our little tease in the eastern GOM about a 15% chance of developing.... It's managed to hang around most of today with some good convection, although it does appear that the convection is somewhat on the decline tonight... it might be trying to redevelop its broad center off more to the southeastern GOM... but this is just a SWAG I might add

I'll up my probability to say 20-25% possible development into a TD by tomorrow or Thursday based on its overall perfromance and persistence from today... and the obserations from the good people of Florida who have been experiencing some of the effects of the system and have posted accordingly...

However, the system is still lacking any significant pressure falls... lowest I could find in the area was 1016.4 mb... Based on what's happen so far this season there have been several systems that we thought might get cranking but for a plethora of reasons never did... this certainly may pan out to be another one.... time will tell...