applying the weird behavior rules of previous systems to this one, i've noticed some similarities--
1)displaced convection: very little at the low center, some on 'bands' in the SE quadrant, most of it clustered off west florida.
2)daily convective peak: usually with tropical systems you get a noctural convective maxima.. convection peaks overnight. all our recent invests tend to lose nighttime convection and get it back in the morning.. convection has been historically associated with convergence lines, areas of upper diffluence, seabreeze fronts, and mccs. the low never shares in the wealth.
3)broad surface low with stable pressures: systems remain clear and discrete at the low levels.. 96L has a low level wind field at least 400 miles in diameter right now.. and a lowest centreal pressure of maybe 1015mb that hasnt risen or fallen appreciably.
i have to admit that the low on this one looks more focused than 95L's...not oblong. maybe if some convection would form there and tighten this baby up we'd get something. as is, 15kt winds is all the ferocity this one has to offer.
pressures over land are going to start falling in about a day up to the north as a surface trough approaches. this should halt the mostly wnw movement of 96L, then drift it north to the coast. based on extrapolated movement i'd reckon it to be coming up near SE louisiana. so if a storm forms, steve and frank p are getting it.
without the previous failures i'd be more optimistic about 96L's chances, but given recent history.. i give it a 40% standing chance of becoming something.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1551z10july