I dunno JK. I find the GFDL to be the hardest model of all to read. I just look for shapes and focus points on it, becase I've never really spent the time to figure it out.

It looks like the current surface quasi-circulation is somewhere due south of the AL/MS border around 87.6. I would assume that a new one would have to form further east under tomorrow's convection in order to blow it up to a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If it gets shunted out NNE or NE as most of the models want to do (and that would be by Saturday at the latest), I'd give it maybe medium TS strength of say 50-55mph.

Steve