thats a pretty normal gfdl run. notice that it initializes the storm a little off, better organized than it is. the model is believable in situations like this.. slow moving storm that intensifies rapidly.. only when a well defined center exists.
gfdl is only predicting that the low will focus and feed back on itself, after all hurricanes are only an efficient way to transfer atmospheric heat.. think of it like a heat siphon that builds on itself once it gets going. think of it as a leak in a dam that becomes a dam break. but the crack isnt there yet, even though convection on the south side away from the center of the low is rather robust at this hour.
i'll get worried if this persists... this is a slow moving gulf system.. but i'm not yet ready to hear the doom cries of people who think every invest will become a major hurricane.
show me a classified system, that is the test.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2014z10july