the lack of immediate development became pretty clear to me when i ran the wv loop. 96L is struggling to find a place. directly to the east is an upper low, and naturally this upper low is bringing a trail of subsidence right across the surface low. that is why the northern half of the system is.. for lack of a better expression.. bald. anyhow i get the feeling that since there is a broad low over warm water and there are places nearby that convection could thrive, i'm thinking it will either do a center relocation or just flounder in its current state until a sustained cdo feature can fight its way through. subsidence on the low is like sand on the fire, it keeps it from doing much.
anyhow, i have a feeling that once the system finally gets a healthy convective look it will start to spin up like a pissed tasmanian devil. of course this could start tonight or three nights from now right on the coast. or inland like 95L, as fate would have it.
as for a timetable on movement, hard to say. how vertically deep the system is at any given time will play big on future movement, and that isnt something i trust any model to figure out. really no telling what the hell the system will do until it becomes a vertically stacked tropical system, otherwise we're trying to forecast the movements of a detached llc in dead steering currents. the globals answer with this solution.. sort of drift it north or northwest and keep it a sissy rainmaker into the weekend. remember, the globals were right about 95L never developing and going inland. days later, same situation, they still say nothing is going to happen. but if something does happen, it should happen FAST.
so anyhow, much said, hope i made some sense.
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