i'm not sure what everybody is seeing. yes there are general pressure falls but pressures are falling everywhere because the surface high is out and the surface trough is nearing. visibles dont look that good, e.g., the low level center is elongated NE-SW and still located north of the convection. that upper low is moving in tandem with the surface low and keeping all the convection to the south. the sfc low is about a degree further north than yesterday, but still looks to be drifting west... maybe northwest. anyway i dont see it intensifying unless that dopey surface center refocuses elsewhere, like maybe under the convection.
i'm sort of a believer in systems getting choked for convection because it forms elsewhere away from the core, robs inflow. whatever surface low there is can continue, but never intensify... a zombie in the world of tropical systems. so basically i dont think it has a chance today. the convection will continue to brew in place, the low will drift around exposed, then by night the convection will die off and start again tomorrow. this process will either result in a tropical system tomorrow, if convection and low ever meet, or nothing as the low isnt staying out over the gulf for too much longer.
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