system has a confused look to it. more twist to the clouds further south where the convection has been going all day, but that is weakening. pressures have dropped some this afternoon, but they have also fallen through the entire region with daytime heating/cold front approach. the nice circular surface windfield earlier today is also distorted now, elongated, more connected to the convection.
so heres what i think.. convection is/was supporting a center reformation on the southern side of the low, somewhere, and now the convection is weakening as it seems to every evening. so what may happen is the center doesnt reform, but remains that dopey low level swirl until tomorrow. or maybe a low will form in a better spot, say within 100 miles of 26/89, and take over. or maybe it will form back southeast towards the fla keys. i really dont know what will happen, this is a sloppy system now trying to transition into something besides an llc with displaced convection. the theme last year was low latitude systems that outrun their convection, then come together as they recurve out to nowhere. this year it seems to be systems that never come together for days in spite of opportunity.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2132z11july