for some reason this makes perfect sense: the surface low that persisted for four days finally opens.. and deep convection forms right where it would have been. 96L has been a barrel of laughs. it almost looks deliberate, doesnt it?
anyhow if a low closes back up then maybe we'd get a baroclinic system that would zip by the outer banks and past bermuda. i doubt that very much, though.
the wave down near the antilles is just eye candy. south flank of the TUTT runs across the caribbean and out into the atlantic.. 30 to 40kt shear. nothing is going to happen down there. the TUTT usually doesnt go away until late summer.
anyhow it becomes less and less likely that we wont get a storm as time goes by. in almost all seasons a storm has formed by august 15th. 1984 and 1977 are the known limit of lateness, august 28th and 29th, respectively.
HF aikenSC 1636z13july