The disturbance (low) is looking better organized and might get upgraded, but SHould remain offshore. Here's another interesting tidbit from the TPC..
MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
A PATTERN MORE FAVORED TO OCCUR IN EL NINO YEARS IS HAPPENING IN
THE AREA WITH AN ENHANCED UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES OVER
THE W ATLC AND IN THE FAR E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS LEADING
TO UNFAVORABLE SHEARING WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM IN THIS
SLOWLY-EVOLVING PATTERN.

Probably stated to feed the presumption of their El Nino declaration. The pattern will change in August. BTW, we know weak El Nino years can support active seasons, which I still believe this is going to be. Once the first system pops others will follow as the cycles begin. Cheers!! Steve H.