i'm not sure what to think about 1985 as an analog. i see likenesses and differences. sure el nino changes from year to year, but hurricanes tend to go in larger, decadal type cycles as well. the numbers of storms we've seen in the past seven seasons are insane compared to the numbers in the 80s. so maybe there are some similarities to that year, but the earth as a whole has changed, oscillated. the idea i've got out of this can best be compared to something bastardi brings up.. the same weather pattern one season gives very different results in another.
anyhow to specific things that floated into my mind about 1985.. heat and cold. i know from looks at extreme weather patterns that there was a lot that year.. in january the coldest temperatures of the century were felt in some parts of the east (it got to four below zero in this town, for instance), and similar weather came to the interior west a couple weeks later (utah's all time record low fell in this spell). in the summer, strangely, utah's all time record high came in july. the weather pattern was extreme, ya see.. we havent been quite that extreme, although i have to admit its been very hot out west lately. also, florida had a record heat wave in early june of that year. later in 1985, in the fall, two hurricanes hit the gulf coast.. juan at the end of october, and kate.. with a track that doesnt look like it could happen in mid november. apparently that year there was a lingering indian summer ridge in the east. although it's next year, i do recall that in 1986 the extreme pattern continued.. extreme cold in florida in january (remember the challenger?) and then a very hot spring and summer here in the southeast in '86 (from my climo records.. here in aiken we got our latest recorded freeze on april 25th, followed by making the state record high for april of 99, only three days later). in terms of the amplitude of systems, how intensely hot or cold it got, i see some comparison, as we've had bursts of heat and cold in the east and a cold spring to hot summer out west. there are lots of possible signals that could be fed off of, and i'm not sure which ones to go with. years of drought in the southeast are piling up, we are making a run to top the drought of the 1950s. recent years of upswing tropical activity have provided surprisingly few hits.. like the active early 1950s that had years where several storms hit and others where hardly anything did.
another thing about 1985.. the percentage of storms to u.s. hits..has to be a statistical fluke. sort of like dimaggio hitting safely in 56 games.. a record made not to be broken.
there are just all sorts of factors to look at that its hard to pick from all the possible outcomes. what im going with mostly is bastardi, and his talk about how the atlantic ridge becomes dominant late in the summer, how el nino is a weak to non player, and how the trough splitting pattern is trying to continue.
anyhow this is a lot of information i've just written and nothing to tie it all together. if there's anything worth discussing right now, it's probably this sort of stuff. are we in a year where decadal long cycles will give us more storms, el nino wont squash them, and a trough splitting pattern will let some of them get through to the coast? or will a late summer pattern with a dominant ridge near the east coast steer them in?
for years we've been watching lots of big storms threaten and never come in, or come in weakened. every year we wonder when things will change to where they historically have been.. when the next period of heavy activity like the 40s through 60s will kick off.
like years past, i'm looking at the signals from the weather pattern, wondering if this will be the year. just dont know. every year, cat 4 floyd just keeps turning north and going to wilmington as a cat 2.. ya know, its a good thing. but it cant go on forever.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1940z15july
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