pattern in the atlantic is transitioning to its mature late summer config over the next week or two. if i had to bet on where a system would form in the meanwhile, it would be off the east coast. maybe from a trough split, sheltered in the ridging on the back side of the TUTT, downstream from the ridge build here over the southeast. cant count on the gulf, disturbed weather there has been mostly on the western gulf coast or inland. anything west carib would just jet right in to central america, deep layer flow too strong from the summer ridges north, not to mention the upper SW jet that keeps hanging on.
nope, next three weeks anything we get will be off the east coast, until the cape verde to caribbean corridor opens up.
anyhow, how about the heat? going to peak near 100 here today, probably through friday or saturday. no real break in the heat or significant rainfall chance is in the foreseeable future 'round here.. moderate hydrologic drought ongoing, so this isnt going to help anybody.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1801z17july