(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Thu Jul 18 2002 11:16 PM

Re: averages/stats

Interesting stats. NOAA took a different approach, but with the same consensus. Since Irene (Oct 99) there have been 19 Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin without a U.S. landfall. Using past records, they compute that the likelyhood of such a drought in landfall with that many hurricanes is less than one-tenth of one percent. Therefore, anyone forecasting at least one U.S. landfalling hurricane this year is making a pretty safe forecast - the odds are sure in your favor.
Cheers,
ED

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