Its about time this area gets made a t.d. The winds are 35 mph and a low leavel center is to the north end of the thunderstorms. This is a plus for the avn that forecasted it in so the track will take it in to cooler waters in 72 hours or so. The winds forecast is forecasted by the gfdl to reach hurricane in 48 hours than weaken than after into the 72 hour time or so there is a high to the north that could change this forecast to more westward but the avn northwest to west north west looks good. This is my forecast on t.d 5 has of 8pm pt and 11pm et time. There is a blob of thunder storms in the cabn so we will watch this. Eastern atlantic strong tropical waves avn also watching these. So a plus for the nhc as of right. Do not use these forecast for life saving forecast that you keep to the nhc for that. The gulf of mexico is very warm in the 90s so that why there so much rain in the south east u.s because warm water go into the air that makes alot of rain so thats why in some places there 40 inches of rain a week in that way this is going to be one good hurricane season. In plus more water in the air means more humid air so more rain in thunderstorms with more humid air to go around means more flooding or at winter more snow that means more colder outbreaks with more snow on the ground witch starts out looking like warmming is going on will the truth is its more wetter around with means stronger hurricanes and tropical storms witch adds heat to the air that move to the north that keeps are plantent in order but thats just starting things the freash water falls on the ocean slowing the gulf stream cooling the northern put of earth in with time the water streams will spread in start the cooling all over earth than the noaa all feel very sorry. Than we go in to ice in snow a cross earth that will not stop for month on end flooding rains snowstorms and really big hurricane will not stop for a very long time the food we die there will be hunger a cross earth. Globle warming ha thats childs play to whats could be coming in the next 20 years to start with than all heck breaks lose so sorry of you don't like this but I have a right to think what I want. Forecaster Matthew