they put an invest on that thing?? apparently a d1.0.. stuck in the itcz. can only see dopey IR, so really seeing whatever got them thinking in terms of invest. few things i can point out about it: most of the globals track this feature as an open wave or small closed low westward... very VERY slowly. like, it doesnt reach the islands until the end of the week on avn/nogaps. it also has a buddy about six or eight degrees behind it that looks.. well, about the same. convection is decent. and finally, easterly shear... the SE atlantic upper ridge is bulging outward now, turning poleward the TUTT, which is no longer a raging 40kt beast.. so shear from behind now and then things calm down later. but again 97L is in the itcz.. things down there take forever to focus usually.
one other thing worthy of mention.. the wave/trade wind surge currently in the islands has a mid level vortmax on it around 21/61.. it is jetting due west. subsidence country, but keep an eye out in case thunderstorms go off on it.
slightly more interesting than last night.
oh, one FINAL thing.. look at that super typhoon in the westpac.. it's forecast to still be going wnw fairly far to the north.. that teleconnects to a hefty bermuda ridge in the atlantic, if i'm not mistaken.
HF sc 0419z22july