cane man.. gary b is only posting MOS (model output statistics) for the different models on invest 97L. the one that says dissipated is gfdl, the others are tracking it.. while the intensity models have it strengthening. something to write home about, i guess. you guys arent kidding about the avn run on that wave that just came off africa.. there is a pretty good vortex with it at very low latitude. if it comes north a little and gets some thunderstomrs going on top.. it could be one of those instant storms. thats IF.. how often do these things hold together this time of year? not very.
for 97L things arent happening very quickly. convection seems to be trending up as time goes by, but still no well defined low. waters getting warmer, atmosphere getting a little less friendly. the trailer wave has less convection now, but the vortex with it is easier to pick out.. it isnt stuck in the itcz. 97L keeps looking better though.. it cant improve much more without becoming a depression.
anyhow.. southeast atlantic looking perky, like it maybe will cough something up this week. sort of a drag if it does.. was expecting it to be less of a factor this year, with more close-in trouble. geez, its only late july.
HF aikenSC 1931z23july