gee, they have the new eastpac system as a 45kt storm.. latest visibles are showing an eye. whoops. that sucker is revving up pretty fast. just looking at douglas too, i'd say their estimates were a little low. looked cat 3 to me yesterday, based on appearance.. not like i was looking at cloud wind vectors or anything.
97L is still sputtering along. convection o.k. but the system is still at only about 9N or 10N latitude, isnt going to really break out if its shell until the low becomes a bump on the itcz as opposed to a max on a trough. slowly working its way just north of west it seems.
trailer wave skeletal. new east african low apparently ahead of its wave, not really together. the convection has already mostly blown off to the west and died, so it has to refire some or it will amount to nothing.
at this point i wouldnt be surprised if we have a depression by thursday.
HF aikenSC 2033z23july