the globals are all tracking 97L through the islands in a few days as a wave, all agreeing fairly well on the wave speed (with the mrf a little different, racing the new african low forward and merging them). for the sake of argument, say that 97L slowly develops. globals have it moving steadily wnw.. which teleconnects well with whats happening in the westpac (s.t. fengshen trucking WNW for over a week) in the 6-10 day period down the road. that would put a hypothetical system at the southeast coast around the end of the month. don't strongly support this solution, but at least some of the things are in place to let it happen.
HanKFranK 0207z24july