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Well the area off of the southern Texas Coast/Eastern Mexico looks really loaded with convection, but I don't see any real signs of a circulation yet. Atmosphere is quite moist, one ingredient needed to fire a TC up. The sheer values are what could stop this system from developing. Although I haven't looked at the sheer map yet this morning, I'll bet it's high. Persistence will also be needed (24-30 hours of sustained convection w/development of at least a mid-level circulation). I wonder if NHC is even paying attention to this area? |