And the tropics are sleepy. But agitated, soon we may see a change of pace that will bring a great deal more activity to follow, but not necessarily to land.

Nothing immediate is going to form, so we can leave it out. But the heat in the East along with the general pattern staying mostly unfavorible for formation may mean a larger transformation once mid August comes.

The effect of the general pattern on tropical activity will not be seen into the later season. Until then, nap a little bit more, but sleep lightly.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]