probably something coming together east of bermuda by tomorrow. models have been harping on this day after day. this energy dropped off the NE US coast a couple of days ago and has been going SE. the probable hybrid tropical system should drift east, then speed north and phase with the next pulse in the trough (i earlier said NAO positive.. this pattern is NAO negative, with the davis straits blocking and troughing off the east coast. my bad).
several of the globals are also envisioning this later, so i'll mention it: another piece of shortwave energy is forecast later this week to break off the east coast again.. but this one goes south and eventually SW.. it should retrograde into the easterly flow. surely watch for this, it would mean possible development right off the east coast backing up.
deep tropics remarkably devoid of convection. also, with the weakened ridge and easterly flow this week, anything in the west caribbean can come NW. nothing there, though.
also.. guys, if gray adds one to each category, were at 12-8-4. that'd be funny.. numbers i've been stuck on since last november. it was just a guess. fyi for those of you who haven't read up and figured this out.. nino 1/2 is the the pacific out near the dateline, nino 3/4 is off peru, around the galapagos. finally, bastardi's talk has been that our pattern since april should morph into something different by late summer/fall--ridge interior west, trough miss. valley/lakes, big ridge western atlantic. season can get pretty rough if that checks out.
anyhow, y'all take it easy.
HF aikenSC 1918z29july