You just know that we were thinking of going to Pensacola this weekend. Bah humbug. I may have to cancel that trip if it sets up to be fun at home instead.

I wish to talk more about the tropics. A major wave is over central Africa now and represents the advance pulsing that we should see 6-10 days after the Pacific shuts down. Fine, but before we crank up the atlantic season, the northern gulf is the place to watch. If I had a lick of guts I would just say, we will have tropical development in the northern gulf this weekend and a west move. The pattern is dictating it with the ridge off the southeast coast and the western ridge combining and trapping a trof split over the northern gulf in the mid levels, while a nice juicy outflow highs builds over top. Here is the problem though: Will the surface low develop over water or over land? If it develops near 28 north then it moves west, its a big problem for Texas and Louisiana over the weekend or early next week. If it develops near 30 north or on land, then its just rainmaker and a wasted chance for a landfalling named storm. Now you may be saying, what the heck do you see down there that can warrant this? Well we have a warming atmosphere at outflow levels with a tropical wave that is arriving from the southeast to add low level warming. While it is warming aloft, it is doing it with a "spreading out" of the air under the mean ridge to the north. Plus we have a trof splitting going on. It is similar to what started Arthur, except its later in the season and it would move west. Suffice it to say big rain amounts will develop over the Florida panhandle tomorrow and Friday then spread west. No, I can not say for sure there will be a tropical cyclone, what I can say is the suspicions from yesterday, brought about by the overall pattern, are still there and perhaps a step further along. So if I am on the central and western gulf coast, I would be watching the weather. Further east, while it will rain alot, this will,not take off to the northeast.