Kevin,

That's pretty much what I said in my post. 6 or 7 days out is almost impossible to forecast.

Shawn,

Did you click that link to the ECMWF or the more detailed link? If you watch it, none of the convection associated with the rain you got Thursday and what I got Friday is involved with the 'new system.' That stuff continues on toward Cuba and heads out to the ocean.

This one comes decidedly from far South as a response to the front over the warm gulf. If it ever develops, my money is on a hybrid type storm. I'm eager to see what tonight's European model has to say. If it shows the same thing again, things might get interesting for late week somewhere along the NC Gulf Coast. I'm pretty sure it was the ECMWF that saw Allison and Barry and the early, unamed storm last year.

Steve